Markets clawed back losses on Monday to end with solid gains. The benchmark Nifty 50 reclaimed the crucial 25,750 level. A sharp recovery in the second half of the session helped the indices erase early morning weakness. The sentiment improved significantly after positive comments emerged regarding trade relations between India and the United States.
- Metals Drive the Recovery
- What Triggered the Market Rebound?
- Banking and Midcap Performance
- Expert View: Where is the Market Headed?
- Earnings and Economic Data
- Stocks in the Spotlight
- Real Estate and Broader Economic Concerns
- Technical Outlook: What Traders Should Watch
- Currency and Commodities
- Key Takeaways for Investors
- Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
- Related Posts
The Sensex jumped 302 points to settle at 83,878. Meanwhile, the Nifty gained 107 points to finish at 25,790. This move was important because the index had slipped below its 100-day moving average recently. By holding above 25,750, buyers have shown some strength. However, the broader market remained mixed with declines outnumbering advances.
Metals Drive the Recovery
The metal sector was the clear winner of the day. This sector outperformed all others, ending near the day’s highest points. Investors rushed back to metal stocks expecting better demand and stable pricing. Tata Steel, Hindustan Copper, and National Aluminium Company (Nalco) were among the top performers. These stocks rallied anywhere between 3% to 5%.
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Coal India also joined the rally and led the gains on the frontline index. The buying pressure in these heavyweights provided the necessary support to push the Nifty into positive territory. For traders looking for the Nifty share price target today, this strength in metals and commodities suggests that index heavyweights are ready to defend lower levels.
What Triggered the Market Rebound?
The main driver for the sudden bounce was a comment from the US side. US Ambassador Sergio Gor spoke about a potential trade deal. Markets love certainty. Any hint of smooth trade relations between two major economies usually brings in buying interest. It helped that the US markets have been showing resilience recently as well.
Traders who were betting on the market falling further (shorts) had to cover their positions quickly once the news hit. This short covering added fuel to the rally. The India VIX, which measures volatility, had shot up recently. On Monday, it seemed to stabilize, giving some relief to investors.
Banking and Midcap Performance
While the Nifty 50 recovered well, the midcap segment struggled a bit. The Nifty Midcap 100 index slipped by 31 points. This indicates that while the biggest companies are doing well, smaller stocks are still under pressure. The market breadth was negative, meaning for every stock that went up, two went down. This is a warning sign that the recovery might be fragile.
The Nifty Bank index, however, played a crucial supporting role. It gained 199 points to close at 59,451. Banking stocks like ICICI Bank showed strength. For the general market to stay positive, the Bank Nifty needs to hold its ground. Analysts believe that as long as banks are not falling, the index has a chance to move toward 26,000.
Expert View: Where is the Market Headed?
Market experts believe the bounce back is just a reaction to the news, but it has changed the short-term technical picture.
Rahul Sharma from JM Financial Services noted that the market was extremely overbought a few weeks ago and then became oversold. He pointed out that the Nifty bounced from a panic low of 25,500. According to him, the immediate resistance is at 26,000. If the Nifty crosses that level, we could see further upside. He also mentioned that Reliance Industries, which was a big dragger, is showing signs of a bottom.
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Asian Paints: A Buy for 2026?
Ambareesh Baliga, an independent market expert, remains positive on Asian Paints. He believes that the competition has not been able to eat into Asian Paints’ market share as much as feared in 2025. With oil prices remaining relatively stable, input costs might not spike. He sees Asian Paints outperforming in 2026 and set a target price of ₹3,400. This is a significant call for investors tracking this counter.
Earnings and Economic Data
Alongside the trade deal news, the market is also in the middle of the earnings season. Investors are looking closely at how companies performed in the December quarter.
IT major TCS announced its results. The company saw a dip in net profit but managed to grow revenue slightly. The numbers were roughly in line with expectations. Market participants are now waiting for results from other heavyweights like Infosys, Reliance, and HDFC Bank to get a clear direction.
Sanjay Parekh from Sohum Asset Managers highlighted that earnings growth for the current year looks weak. He mentioned that Nifty profit growth is expected to be around 3-4% for the quarter. The market is hoping for a recovery in the fourth quarter (January-March 2026), driven by lower interest rates and festive demand.
Stocks in the Spotlight
Several individual stocks made big moves on Monday, reacting to news or technical factors.
- Shakti Pumps: The stock surged 5% after the company secured a massive ₹654 crore order from Karnataka Renewable Energy Development Limited (KREDL).
- IREDA: Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency shares rose 4% after the company reported a strong 38% year-on-year jump in its third-quarter net profit.
- Tejas Networks: This stock was the biggest loser on the Nifty. It slumped nearly 10% after reporting a loss of ₹196 crore for the December quarter.
- Manappuram Finance: The stock gained 3% after the company clarified reports regarding its deal with Bain Capital.
- JTL Industries: The share price surged 20% (upper circuit) after the company bagged a new order from Punjab State Transmission Corporation Limited.
Real Estate and Broader Economic Concerns
Not everything was positive. Real estate stocks were under significant pressure. Experts from Liases Foras told CNBC-TV18 that sales volumes have reduced. While luxury housing is still selling, it cannot support the entire market alone. There is softening demand in cities like Mumbai and NCR, and developers are cutting prices on unsold inventory.
Despite the bounce, Indian markets are still among the worst performers globally in 2025. In dollar terms, the Indian market has given only about 5% returns over the last year, while indices in the US, Europe, and Japan have gained between 15% to 35%.
The Union Budget 2026 date has been set for February 1. Investors will now slowly start positioning themselves for that event. The government’s spending plans and tax policies will be the next big catalyst for the market.
Technical Outlook: What Traders Should Watch
From a technical standpoint, the Nifty has managed to recover from the 100-day moving average. However, the advance-decline ratio of 1:2 shows that the underlying market is still weak. The rally was led by a few heavy stocks like Tata Steel and Reliance.
Traders should watch the 26,000 level on the Nifty. This is a psychological level and a major resistance. If the Nifty sustains above 25,750, we can expect a move to 26,000. But if it fails to hold 25,700, the correction could resume.
Rahul Sharma advises that traders can look at buying ICICI Bank with a stop loss of ₹1,380 for a target of ₹1,500. For Tata Steel, a buy call with a stop loss of ₹176 and a target of ₹190 is suggested.
The telecom space also looks interesting. Reliance Industries is trying to find a bottom. If it moves above ₹1,540-1,550, it could add points to the Nifty. Bharti Airtel also looks like it has formed a bottom.
Currency and Commodities
The Indian Rupee ended almost flat at 90.15 against the US Dollar. The currency has been under pressure due to the strength of the dollar and foreign fund outflows. However, on Monday, it managed to hold its ground despite the volatility in equity markets.
In commodities, metal prices supported the stock gains. Oil prices remain a watch point due to the situation in Venezuela and global demand concerns. Stable oil is good for India’s inflation and current account deficit.
Key Takeaways for Investors
Here is a summary of today’s market action:
- Index Recovery: Nifty recovered from lows to close above 25,750.
- Sector Leaders: Metals (Tata Steel, Nalco) and Commodities (Coal India) led the rally.
- Broader Market: Midcaps were weak; market breadth was negative.
- Key Drivers: Positive trade deal comments from US Ambassador.
- Stock Specific: Shakti Pumps, IREDA up on positive news; Tejas Networks down on weak results.
- Expert Outlook: Short-term bounce possible toward 26,000. Asian Paints seen hitting ₹3,400.
While the day ended on a positive note, investors should remain cautious. The market has seen a sharp correction recently, and today’s bounce might just be a relief rally. Keep an eye on global cues, especially US market openings and the rupee’s movement against the dollar. Earnings season will dictate the next big move for individual stocks.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q: What is the Nifty share price target for today?
A: Based on today’s closing at 25,790, the immediate resistance is at 26,000. The support level is now at 25,700. The trend has turned short-term positive, but traders should watch for a breakout above 26,000 for higher targets.
Q: Why did the market go up today?
A: The market rallied primarily due to positive comments from US Ambassador Sergio Gor regarding a potential trade deal between India and the US. This sparked short covering and buying in heavyweight stocks like Coal India and Tata Steel.
Q: Are metal stocks a good buy now?
A: Metal stocks led the rally today with gains of up to 5%. Analysts remain positive on the sector due to stable demand and pricing. However, buying on dips is generally safer than chasing a rally.
Q: What is the target for Asian Paints?
A: Market expert Ambareesh Baliga expects Asian Paints to outperform in 2026. He has set a target price of ₹3,400 for the stock, citing stable input costs and strong market share retention.
Q: Should I invest in real estate stocks?
A: Experts are advising caution in the real estate sector. Sales volumes are slowing down, and valuations were expensive. While luxury housing is doing okay, the broader sector faces structural issues.
Q: When is the Union Budget 2026?
A: The Union Budget 2026 will be presented on February 1, 2026, at 11:00 AM by the Finance Minister.
Q: Why are midcap stocks falling while Nifty is rising?
A: Today, the rally was driven by large-cap stocks like Reliance, Tata Steel, and Coal India. Midcap stocks did not participate in the rally and saw selling pressure. This indicates that while the index looks stable, money is moving to safer, large companies.
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